Monday, August 16, 2004

El Presidente's Problems in a Nutshell

David Broder's op-ed in yesterday's Washington Post was interesting to read. No, he doesn't say anything that others haven't said before. But it is interesting to hear these things coming from a Washington stalwart like Broder. Brings into relief something I've felt for awhile...that conventional wisdom is starting to come around to the reality...which is that El Presidente is in real trouble. For example:
If Bush can win reelection despite the failure of his two most consequential -- and truly radical -- decisions, he will truly be a political miracle man. But as his own nominating convention approaches, the odds are against him.
Its interesting that Broder says this. Josh Marshall points this out today as well, that all the conventional wisdom is that this race is super close...despite the fact that all the data (the internals of polls) point to an electorate which has largely made up its mind to ditch the biggest failure of a president since Nixon.

JH made an interesting comment to me on Friday, which was that if things hold up, this could turn out in the neighborhood of 60-40 in terms of the popular vote. The more things look, the happier (and worried, cause that's who we are) Dems should be. The GOP convention is shaping up to be one of El Presidente's last chances to change how this race is coming down. Odd to say that when a year ago, it looked hopeless.


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