Monday, November 01, 2004

Election Prediction

We're less than twelve hours away from the polls opening here in VA. For all intents and purposes, the "race" for the White House is over. All that's left is to count all the votes. That is, assuming they all get counted.

Having said that, I'm going to venture my prediction on tomorrow's election. Maybe I'm right...maybe I'm wrong. But, in 2000 - I predicted that it was all going to come down to Florida and was right. For the record, I predicted a Gore victory and...had all the votes been counted, we would have had one. So...without further predictions:

1.) I believe turnout is going to be close to or surpassing a "modern record" this year. I'm guessing somewhere at least in the 60 percent range. I may be wrong, but...I'm getting that kind of feeling.

2.) I'm confident that Kerry will win the following states: CA, OR, WA, HI, MN, IL, MI, ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, NY, DE, PA, NJ, MD, DC (242 electoral votes)

3.) I'm confident El Presidente will win the following states: ID, UT, AZ, WY, CO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AK, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, TN, KY, IN, WV (192 electoral votes)

4.) I believe, but am not positive, that Kerry will also win: OH (20 electoral votes...262 total)

5.) I believe, but am not positive, that Bush will also win: AR, VA, NV, NM, MO (40 electoral votes...242 total)

That leaves the race at 262 - 232 for Kerry, with 44 votes up for grab. For Bush to win, he would pretty much need a sweep, while Kerry needs either FL or WI. Disaster strikes us all if Kerry were to win Iowa while losing both Wisconsin and Florida, since that creates a tie and throws the election into the House of Representatives.

That said, I think Kerry loses Iowa but wins Florida and Wisconsin, making him the clear victor at the end of the day. No House, no courts...a concession from Bush that comes when the race is called from the west coast results. Popular vote totals come down to about 51-47, I'm thinking, in Kerry's favor.

I'd put the chances of a Bush landslide at zero at this point. I still believe there is a significant chance of a Kerry landslide...or at least a bigger win than the 299-239 I'm predicting. I'm not confident, but...I think that all of Bush's "iffy" states above could easily end up breaking for Kerry due to heavy Democratic Party turnout that I am expecting, which is not included in polls taken. If that is the case, I think you could see something closer to a 346-192 Kerry win. Heavy turnout is why I believe PA is off the map for Bush, and OH and FL will both go blue.

Signs of victory: Obviously, heavy turnout is the big one. If turnout is heavy, particularly in "battleground states," this does not bode well for Bush. Bush's support is soft enough that it won't draw people to the polls out of fear of the next four years. Kerry's support is framed by 2000 and not wanting a repeat. Heavy turnout sways things and makes almost all the polls worthless. As for states...I think it comes down to Wisconsin and Florida. Bush cannot win without them. Dropping either one should seal the deal and drive a stake into his heart. That said, I think that a bad sign for Bush is if the networks are unable to "call" Virginia, North Carolina, or West Virginia early on. If Bush loses any one of those states, I think he'll be doomed.

If turnout turns out to be as high as I think it will be, this could turn out to all be moot.

Here's to keeping the fingers crossed.


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