Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Guz Watch: Same story, different day

The more things change, the more they stay exactly the same. While the Nats are the hottest team in baseball, soaring to win 10 straight and 14 of their last 16 games, moving ten games above .500 and 2 games up on their nearest competition in the NL East...Guzman has been holding steady, the weighty anchor tied to the team's legs in game after game.

Most evenings, I find myself simply thankful that he didn't give up an error. But that only takes you so far. After last night's game (thankfully, they can sub for him late in games now), he still is batting under the Mendoza line (.192) - about where he was when we started this whole watch thing several weeks ago. Even when he does get on base, though...he seems to get picked off (which is annoying as all h*ll). Last week he went 3 for 16 with 1 R and two XBHs. That's a .187 BA, for the record. Worse...strikeouts went up (he had 5) and his LOBs were up as well...4 over the weekend, plus 10 in the three-game Oakland series.

Even worse...I bothered to check his "splits" on ESPN.com today. Not safe for children. My goodness. His numbers with runners on base are simply atrocious.
With runners on base: .143 BA with 21(!!) Ks
With runners in scoring position: .113 BA with 14 Ks
With runners in scoring position and two out: 30 AB, 2 H, .067 BA, 11K

Look at that number above again. If you raised his BA with runners in scoring position and two out to just .250, you could assume at least 5 more runs - perhaps more considering circumstances. Right there...might have equalled at least two or three additional wins. These things are hard to compute, but...stats don't lie. He's batting 0 for 6 with men on 3rd base. That's just terrible, folks.

The fact is, we're stuck with him for the year. We don't have any better options. But still...I shall keep the faith.

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